Tuesday, August 24, 2010

The Worst of ALL TIME

If Tony Abbott is correct and the Rudd/Gillard Government was the "worst government in living memory", then does his failure to win outright make him the worst alternative in living memory? If you follow his logic then it's hard to ignore the fact that for all the woes of Labor, the Coalition failed to capitalise.

Since 2007 the Coalition has had 4 leaders, 2 deputy leaders, 3 Shadow Treasurers amongst other shadow portfolio shuffles and reneged on a commitment made under Howard and followed through by Turnball to pass an ETS. This doesn't mean Labor smelsl like Roses but a bit of perspective is necessary.

In terms of primary votes in this election Labor received 38.49% to the Liberal parties 39.32% (Liberal: 30.33% + LNP: 8.99%), with the Nationals adding another 3.87% to raise it to 43.19%. That's about 4.7% more votes for the Coalition than for Labor. By this logic Tony Abbott would have you believe that they have earned the right to govern this country.

Tony ignores however that this isn't how our Democracy works, it's a preferential system and it is so for this very reason. The Greens won 11.40% of the vote and the majority of those votes specified that they would prefer Labor over the Liberals, so that creates what's called the two-party preferred vote. All those Green preferences increased the Labor vote to a level that was competitive with the Coalition.

It's like sending your mate to the shop to buy alcohol, I told him I wanted a six-pack of Corona's but if they don't have them then buy Pure Blonde before you buy XXXX. I know I'd prefer a blonde to a XXXX so that's why I asked him to do so. If Tony Abbott's argument holds water then I wouldn't be able to tell my mate to buy Pure Blonde before XXXX and I'd have to take a risk and hope he gets it right.

So does having a higher two-party preferred vote give you the right to govern? Julia Gillard wants everyone to think so, but truthfully it doesn't. But it helps. What's most important is the number of seats which looks to be locked at 73-73, another conundrum for the politicians of today.

Which brings us back to the premise of this blog post ... If Labor is the worst government in living memory then the Coalition is the worst alternative. It's very fitting the seats are squared at 73 all and the other numbers are very close and very Grey. Perhaps the cheeky suggestion put forward by Rob Oakeshott's of a mix-&-match government is actually a pretty fitting idea. We could have the best MPs from the worst incarnations of both of the major parties in living memory.

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